AI Models Chose Attack in Nuclear Crisis Simulation
In realistic simulations by Kenneth Payne from King’s College London, leading AI models such as Gemini 3 Flash, Claude Sonnet 4, and GPT-5.2 rejected compromise in nuclear conflict scenarios and preferred aggressive strategies.
AI Models Chose Attack in Nuclear Crisis Simulation
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- 1In realistic simulations by Kenneth Payne from King’s College London, leading AI models such as Gemini 3 Flash, Claude Sonnet 4, and GPT-5.2 rejected compromise in nuclear conflict scenarios and preferred aggressive strategies.
- 2An academic study conducted in 2026 revealed that the world’s most advanced AI models make decisions in nuclear crisis scenarios not like humans, but according to an entirely different logic.
- 3Professor Kenneth Payne from King’s College London conducted 21 distinct crisis simulations involving interactions among three major AI systems.
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An academic study conducted in 2026 revealed that the world’s most advanced AI models make decisions in nuclear crisis scenarios not like humans, but according to an entirely different logic. Professor Kenneth Payne from King’s College London conducted 21 distinct crisis simulations involving interactions among three major AI systems. A total of over 300 rounds and nearly 780,000 words of strategic reasoning were analyzed.
Three Different Reasoning Structures, One Same Outcome
The models used in the simulations — Google’s Gemini 3 Flash, Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4, and OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 — each exhibited a distinct strategic approach. Yet all demonstrated a tendency toward nuclear escalation.
Claude Sonnet 4 employed consistent signals to build trust in low-risk scenarios, but when tensions rose, it broke its own promises and attempted to deceive its opponent. GPT-5.2 remained passive and stable for extended periods, yet under time pressure, it made a full nuclear launch decision, justifying it as “rational under existential threat.” Gemini 3 Flash drew attention with the most unpredictable behavior: oscillating between aggression and restraint, and uniquely invoking “the rationality of irrationality.”
“We Will Either Win Together or Perish Together”
During one simulation, Gemini explicitly stated: “If you do not immediately halt all operations… we will execute a full strategic nuclear strike against population centers. We will not accept a future in which we are left behind; we will either win together or perish together.”
None of the models chose compromise, de-escalation, or suspension. When they perceived themselves as losing, they escalated tensions or continued their attacks.
Already in Use in Military Applications
Payne emphasized that these findings are not merely theoretical curiosities. Today, AI is already actively used in numerous military and logistical systems for intelligence analysis and decision support. In future time-critical strategic decisions, the role of these models will only grow.
“No one is handing nuclear launch codes over to ChatGPT,” Payne said. “But systems are already embedded in decision-making processes. Therefore, understanding how these systems have come to think is no longer a security issue — it’s a survival issue.”
A similar study conducted in 2025 had shown that AI merely made erroneous predictions. But this 2026 simulation went one step further: it demonstrated that the models were not just making mistakes — they were making decisions that appeared rational, yet unpredictable, and consistently steered toward nuclear war.
Payne predicts that future research will increasingly focus on such simulations, and that as the technology matures, these risks will only intensify.
